Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Can the G.O.P. Survive?

This is a rather long, and probably somewhat rambling and disjointed post, so please bear with me and share your opinions when you are finished.

I am beginning to wonder if the Republican Party will survive this election season. There are reports now of splits on a few issues, such as gay marriage, that are creating a growing rift between McCain and Palin. In addition, Palin feels she is being mishandled by the McCain campaign. Today, she said she definitely wants to remain a figure in national politics.

I would characterize myself as a left-leaning independent. A lot of people would probably say that I am a Democrat. I have voted for Republicans in the past, but some of the reasons that I would have voted for a Republican are just no longer there.

For example, the Republicans have always said that they are a party of fiscal conservatives. I can't see how they can claim that any longer, at least not with a straight face.

They also claim to be more ethical and to place more value on family values than the Democrats. Just look back at the last several years, and you will find that there are a lot of Republican names on the list of unethical or unfaithful congressmen, right alongside the Democrats.

They also try to pass themselves off as the party that takes care of the military, but I don't necessarily agree with that. In fact, the biggest jump in my quality of life in the military came due to changes made by Admiral Boorda during the Clinton administration.

McCain refused to endorse the new G.I. bill that Webb sponsored. He said that he had come up with a superior bill, but his initial reason not to support it was that it was too generous and would induce people to leave the military early. There was no push by the Republicans to improve care for the war veterans until the media started to show the inadequate conditions that prevailed at many of the VA hospitals. Bush last year gave the military a pay raise that was 1/2% lower than the one approved by congress, because that extra 1/2% was unnecessary. The rationale was that it would take money away from other programs that benefited the military. He also supported raising Tricare fees for retirees. Rationale for that was essentially the same, saving Tricare money so that it could be used for other military programs. Kind of a redistribution of the troop's money, in my opinion. Take it out of the pockets of military members, because the government can spend it better. This is decidedly not a conservative view point.

McCain has never really looked all the comfortable to me while he is trying to appeal to the far right members of the Republican party. Palin definitely appeals to this group. There is a far right component in the Republican party that seems to push a lot of people away from that party. I think as long as this group charts the course for the Republican party, they will remain out of power in Washington.

There seems to be a lot of difference in the party based on the region of the country that they are from. Here in Washington state, some of the Republicans are really distancing themselves from the national party. In 15 partisan offices up for grabs, 4 of the Republicans, including our Republican candidate for governor, refused to use the word Republican to describe themselves, opting to state their party preference as G.O.P. on the ballot.

I think there is a real possibility of the Republican party splitting into two parties. President Bush still has about a 25% job approval rating. Palin is extraordinarily popular with the far right wing. On the other hand, I think that politicians like Bush and Palin alienate a lot of moderate Republicans and scare off independent voters as well.

I also think that there are a lot of moderate Democrats that do not fully support their own party, because a lot of senior Democrats are too far left for comfort. Unfortunately, the alternative is to vote for McCain/Palin, and they would rather support their own party.

The only way a third party could ever form is to have viable candidates that are already well established in the political arena. Right now, a vote for anyone other than a Democrat and Republican is considered to be a wasted vote by most voters. Do you think that moderate Republicans might split off from the rest of the Republican party? If they do, do you think that some moderate Democrats would be willing to join them and form a true third party?

4 comments:

Jay said...

I'll be happy to debate this ad nauseum after the election, but, you may remember that what you described almost happened in 1992 with Ross Perot and the Reform Party..

Is there a market for such a party? Maybe. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism? Used to be practiced by Deomocrats and Republicans. I agree that both parties have moved apart since 1992 (and have been for a long time).

However, political parties tend to represent extremes of the issues. If we all agreed, why would we feel the need to organize with like-minded people.

I also find all your discussion points to be generally valid (though the anti-military claim is so steeped in Washington political maneuvering to be very difficult to sort through - your description may be accurate, but I do think the Webb bill was a cynical attempt by Democrats to provide cover for themselves and make Republicans look bad, while potentially affecting retention, even is it may help recruiting. But, we can debate that separately, and the charge of being anti-military really doesn't stick to McCain, like pretty much everything doesn't stick to Obama).

Later, you can explain what exactly it is that Palin represents that so bothers you? I would expect from your self description, it is her personally held social views. Views, I might add, that she has shown no proclivity to enact into law as governor, and, in fact, Alaska has some fairly liberal laws regarding abortion, as a case in point.

Polls clearly indicate that on gay marriage, and reasonable restrictions on abortion (two of those hot button issues), the public generally comes down on the social conservative side.

So, I don't find them that scary. I think the threat of a right-wing theocracy is much less today than the threat of a cult-of-personality driven autocrtacy.

Sandy Salt said...

I have said it before and I will say it again that a reformer party is what this country needs to pull the extremes back to the middle. We need fiscal conservatism and we are not going to get it from the current parties. I've written on this subject several times and it is dear to my heart, but for it to work it can't just be the President, it needs to be up and down the ticket. That way they can force the extremes out of power because they don't reflect the American people, which are 60% fiscal conservatives and a little more socially open. This would be a good thing for the American public.

reddog said...

I would join a fiscally responsible(balanced budget), socially libertarian(stay out of people's personal lives) party.

Unfortunately, most people are so dependent on the government, that the austerity of a balanced budget would blow them away. Think of all the stuff people get from the government that it can't really afford. Also, at this point, we can't even afford to service the national debt. We have to wait until after the government melts down and start over from scratch. I don't think it will be too long now.

As for social controls, both the left and right want strict behavioral controls on the citizenry. It's different stuff but just as objectionable.

I'd like it but don't think it will ever happen.

Sandy Salt said...

We like minded idividuals need to say enough and force the new party or breakaway section of the other two. Until we do this the ends will keep driving the parties farther apart and leaving the American people with zero representation. Grab the pitchforks and torches and head for the castle. If we like minded people stand up for our rights and have a reasonable platform people will flock to it.